Download PDF Methodology of Geopolitics-Part1

Free download. Book file PDF easily for everyone and every device. You can download and read online Methodology of Geopolitics-Part1 file PDF Book only if you are registered here. And also you can download or read online all Book PDF file that related with Methodology of Geopolitics-Part1 book. Happy reading Methodology of Geopolitics-Part1 Bookeveryone. Download file Free Book PDF Methodology of Geopolitics-Part1 at Complete PDF Library. This Book have some digital formats such us :paperbook, ebook, kindle, epub, fb2 and another formats. Here is The CompletePDF Book Library. It's free to register here to get Book file PDF Methodology of Geopolitics-Part1 Pocket Guide.

Sane people, in general, make decisions based on the choices they see as available and that will involve the greatest benefit for the least cost. People who do bad things do not usually see themselves as evil but instead think that the decision they are making is the best choice available to them at the time to meet some goal or address some threat.

This goal can be as personal as injecting heroin into a vein to attain the goal of happiness or as world affecting as joining a war in Syria to further your goal of increasing the power of your country in other regions of the world. Two areas must be addressed. First, statistical models can determine what people or countries are likely to do based on past behavior. Geographical features can shape a culture. Mountains on a border can protect a culture and allow it to develop without constant invasion while plains allow a free flow to invaders.

Rivers promote trade and cultural affinity. The rivers of Jordan all flow from the East to the West where they join the Jordan river. It is the consideration of these factors, moreover, that would grant the geographical study of such regions a more concrete character, as opposed to the abstract proposals coming from the regional economic theory Kayser; Guglielmo, Regarding the difference between "liberal" and "voluntary" formation of such regions, Kayser also shows us that in socialist countries - as in "developing" countries - all these factors are more strongly controlled by the state and is more appropriate to talk about "voluntary" or "planned" formation of such regions in these cases Kayser, Under this approach, the region is a concrete reality, and its existence depends crucially on all "factors" as mentioned above.

In the author's words,. The regions are living, complex organisms. They arise, that is, take crystallize body and - develop themselves, that is, they structure themselves in an increasing steadily, gain cohesion. They may also suddenly die, due to the action of an external agent, or by slow disintegration Kayser, , p. It would be up to the researchers of such regional phenomenon to unravel the "vital mechanisms" behind the structuring of regions.

It is worth noting, finally, that for Kayser, the regionalization concept serves both to identify the formation of such regions - thinking of their "liberal" or spontaneous evolution - as to "build" new regions - thinking of their "voluntary" or planned formation. Since the early s, the regional studies in the described manner have come under harsh criticism, coming from all areas of knowledge, which questioned the validity of these approaches "natural regions", lablachean region, economic, "planning" approaches etc.

In general, these criticisms were based on the philosophy of historical materialism, and saw the region as "[ One pioneer of such criticisms, Hugo Zemelman advocates the idea that, without incorporating the "totality" and "praxis" categories, just as the "perspective of social classes" on regional analysis, one does not come to a concrete definition in any approach. There are four more well finished criticisms of the regional approach which were made in this context of introduction of Marxism into human geography, respectively held by Yves Lacoste , Milton Santos ; , Doreen Massey and Ann Markusen The Lacoste criticisms have a determined address: the "traditional" regional French geography, especially the one proposed by its main articulator, Vidal de La Blache.

According to Lacoste, it would be necessary to point out the "[ In addition to these more political issues, Lacoste also suggests a number of epistemological problems in these proposals. The definitions of such regions in La Blache become "powerful obstacle -concepts", and as he had not explicitly worked out for the methodological assumptions of his regional geography, the author produces "hidden axioms [ The author adds that being the regions "[ Regarding the definition of such a region, Lacoste shows that.

While it would be politically healthier and more effective to consider the region as a spatial form of political organization etymologically, the region comes from regere , that is, to dominate, govern , geographers believe in the idea that the region is almost a given eternal fact, product of geology and history. Geographers, somehow, eventually naturalize the idea of region: do they not speak about limestone regions, of granitic regions, cold regions, forest regions?

Systemic geopolitical modeling. Part 1: prediction of geopolitical events

They use the concept of region, which is fundamentally political, to designate all kinds of spatial sets, whether topographical, geological, climatic, botanical, demographic, economic or cultural Lacoste, , p. Santos there draws attention to the fact that the development conditions of capitalist system - increasingly internationalized - as well as the contemporary forms of displacement of goods, people and information, beat to death those existing regional arrangements, with empirical and theoretical repercussions to the regional debate.

To enlarge and give impetus to regional analysis, the author speaks of the need to be incorporated the category of "totality" in geography - and in the regional studies - also taking into account the notions of structure, process, function and form Santos, The "driving force" of regional formation processes - and organization of space and place - would be the "social totality" which is both a "[ It is a situation, and a situation in change " Santos, , p.

  • A Castle of Sand (A Shade of Vampire, Book 3)?
  • Geographic Methods: Visual Analysis - Geography - Oxford Bibliographies.
  • Sexuality: Psychoanalytic Perspectives.

From the point of view of the empirical implications of this approach, if it was difficult to talk about regions like " lablacheans " whose main logic should be sought in their own local human-environment relationships in the current conditions of globalization, it is impossible to understand the region but from the "internal" and "external" vectors that form it. Upon Santos definition , p. The progress in the field of transport and communications, as well as the expansion of the international economy - which has become "widespread" - explains the crisis of the classical notion of region.

Defined as mainly from abroad, their limits change with the criteria we set it. Therefore, the region does not exist by itself. This dynamic understanding of the regional issue derives from a whole series of contemporary definitions towards the phenomenon. According to the author, the region would be so, from a theoretical point of view, "[ One can recently highlight two main ways to address the regional issue in the work of Milton Santos. A first dimension of his approach is more concerned with identifying "material" factors in defining regions and the analysis of the diffusion of what he called "technical-scientific informational milieu " Santos, , This type of geographical environment comprises those parts of the territory in which they intensely - and contiguously - appear central features of the current period of globalization: modern telecommunications and transports, automated production systems, high-tech companies, the "most advanced" universities, skilled labor, "scientific" agriculture, etc.

All these activities and support-networks with huge densities of "science", "information" and "technology" are the direct result of modernity imposed by globalization, and are a constituent part of the "technical-scientific informational milieu " The spread of this new type of geographical environment, however, is extremely selective, especially in peripheral countries: there are portions of territories that have higher technical and informational densities and plots in which these elements appear less intense or in a "linear" or "punctual" form.

A second dimension of such regional analysis proposed by Santos an inseparable dimension of the "material basis" mentioned above concerns to the "immaterial" aspects forming regions, that is, the logic and the intentions of organizations public or private which give cohesion and systematic to the regional arrangements. The main concept that helps to identify these more "immaterial" logics is the "geographical solidarities", which exactly corresponds to the result of social and territorial division of labor installed in different portions of the geographic space, at every historical period.

That is, as many as important than the physical infrastructure, the "immaterial" factors, the "intelligence" or teleology are those that unify places and regions. This unification is primarily guided by the vicissitudes of hegemonic agents and the instrumental rationality , as in the case of large corporations that shape the different areas of the globe in their favor.

According to Milton Santos , p.

  1. Foreseeing the Future Quantum-Artificial Intelligence World and Geopolitics.
  2. Services on Demand!
  3. Methodology of Geopolitics-Part1.
  4. To Understand Buddhism.
  5. In the current definition of such regions, we are far from that organic solidarities which was the very heart of the very definition of a regional phenomenon. What we have today are organizational solidarity.

    Services on Demand

    The regions exist because they are imposed by organizational arrangements, creating organization cohesion based on rationales of distant origin, but which become the foundation of the existence and definition of these subspaces. As they are always "functionalizations of the totality" - and because changes in times of globalization are increasingly accelerated - the regional arrangements no longer have the "historic" stability they had: nothing would be more anachronistic than working with the categories of the old classic French tradition, in which regions were considered as a result of lasting process of formation of the " genres de vie " and "landscapes" resulting therefrom.

    Besides not having more the "absolute territoriality of a group" - as it was the case in periods previous to the twentieth century - the number of factors which focuses today on regional formations is much larger, and more complex. The control of these mediations, in the limit, is given by the logic of big businesses, with the main nexus of regional organization in today's world starting from them.

    Thus, "[ The region is therefore the result of the dialectic between two types of logic: one that is given by the internal arrangements of each regional division of work which is more the result of historical formation, spontaneous of such regions and other that is expressed by the influence of increasingly acute external vectors whether norms, information flows, capital, goods, investments etc. To the most "internal" arrangements, Santos gives the name of "horizontalities"; to the external vectors, "verticalities". It is from the analysis of these two approaches that one can understand and define the contours of such regional entities of territories in the contemporary world.

    Or, as shown by Maria Laura Silveira , p. Although some recent theoretical discourses have decreed the "end" of the region, it is, in fact, the result of the advance of globalization itself, since at each progress of dissemination of global modernity vectors, a corresponding differentiation of spaces on earth surface is created: nonetheless though it may be that globalization tries to homogenize the space, it ends up fragmenting it and further the regionalization Santos, The region and regionalization definitions in certain approaches were seen as given phenomena or concrete facts, with autonomy of existence, and at other times as mere theoretical facts, creations of the "human spirit".

    The most recent approaches are less believers of that autonomy - or ontological status - of regions. This is the case of all the Marxist literature, which further enhances the definition of regions as a result of "social totality". According to these definitions, beyond the regions be a form derived from human intelligence and design - as a framework for action of states and companies - this creation is still "manipulated" in an ideological form, as to expand political gains with uses of such concept Markusen, ; Moraes, Although in an exploratory manner, it can be said that the rescue of the region and regionalization concepts in human geography allows reflecting on some of the key contemporary debates of "health geography.


    These interface elements between the problems of health and human geography can certainly help in one of the main challenges for resumption of regional debate in the contemporary period, which is to seek new forms of "democratic territorial planning" as defined by Jacques Scheibling for its time. Recife: Anpur, Acesso em: 28 set. Cybergeo: European Journal of Geography, Paris, n. Acesso em: 30 set. Paris: Masson, Paris: PUF, Central places in southern Germany.

    Stratfor - George Friedman - Methodology of Geopolitics - Part 1

    The Chinese people find themselves in one of the brashest days of their revolutionary saga. Great Britain threatened to go to combat, organizing a military disembarking in Shanghai. The danger, of course, does not exists for any other means other than for the imperialists to dispute or divvy up the economic dominion of China.

    The Canton government dos not lay claim to more than the sovereignty of the Chinese in their own country.

    Quoted by Jose Carlos Mariategui, In this same way, a few days after the taking of Shanghai, another great thinker and politician of Latin America, the also Peruvian Victor Raul Haya de la Torre, states from his exile in England:. The triumph of the Cantonese troops, that Chang Kai-shek commands, over Shanghai, the richest and most important city in China, it implies that, without a doubt, one of the most important victorious steps towards unity has been taken by the great Asian republic under the flag of the Kuomintang.

    The complete dominance of the Kuomintang over china will imply victory of the anti-imperialistic nationalistic policy and will change the course of events, indefinitely. Great Britain has clearly seen the danger and has sent thousands of soldiers to wait, guns ready. Haya de la Torre, , 3: Days after publishing this article, from Lima and in total coincidence with the analysis of young Victor Raul Haya de la Torre, the already mentioned Mariategui states:.

    The conquest of the millennial capital no longer finds unsurmountable obstacles. England, Japan, the United States, will not cease to conspire against the revolution, exploiting the ambition and the venality of the accessible military chiefs to their suggestions. The intention to tempt Chiang Kai-shek is already being warned. One must give him the necessary height to appreciate the difference between the historic role of a liberator and that of a traitor to his people.

    Views on the study of geopolitical environment system simulation

    The process of founding insubordination initiated by Sun Yat-sen was then left truncated. In his ambitious decennial plan was practically discarded. For more on the reforms of Deng Xiaoping , see John Fairbank For more on the Boxer Rebellion, see Jean Chesneaux For more on Chinese nationalism as a movement aimed mainly at overthrowing the Manchu monarchy, see Marie-Claire Bergere Libros I-V, Madrid, Ed.

    Gredos, Madrid, Ed Revista de Occidente, Vierteljahrshefte fur Zeitgeschichte, Jhg, 2H, abril Carnegie Institution, Washington, COLE, G. Prometeo, Buenos Aires, King, EAST, R. Guerra y democracia en la era del Imperio, Buenos Aires, ed.

    Forecasting Methods Overview

    Sudamericana, Edhsa, Norma, Commodore Matthew C. Perry, , Boston, ed. Little Brown, From Perry to MacArthur. London, The Johns Hopkins Press, Japanese Economic Growth. Trend Acceleration in the Twentieth Century. Stanford, Stanford University Press,